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Monitoring the Spatial Evolution of Conflicts in North and West Africa I

Monitoring the Spatial Evolution of Conflicts in North and West Africa I

2021-2022

Principal Investigator at UF: Assistant Professor Olivier J. Walther (lead researcher). Collaborators: Mr. Matthew Pflaum. Lead at OECD: Dr. Marie Trémolières. Consultants: Assistant Professor Steven M. Radil and Mr. David Russell.

Objective

This research program monitors the changing geography of conflicts in North and West Africa. Based on geospatial data provided by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the program develops a new Spatial Conflict Dynamics Indicator (SDCi) that takes into consideration the intensity of violence and its spatial distribution since the late 1990s. The indicator will measure the extent to which violence has increased, how it spreads across the region, potentially across borders, and the effectiveness of measures taken to contain it.

The research program will further expand the specificities of border regions already highlighted in the 2020 report on the geography of regional conflicts. This analysis will examine the overall relationships between political violence and borderlands in North and West Africa. It will study why borderlands are disproportionately violent when compared to other state spaces, whether politically motivate violence changed over time, and which borderlands are more violent than others.

Without answers to such questions, taking on more complex issues related to border violence such as assessing the divergent impacts to civilian populations, considering policy responses, or untangling the root causes of the conflicts that continue to disrupt the region remain inaccessible at best. This program will address the questions of borderland violence with an examination of the geography of violent events encompassing 21 North and West African countries across 24 years.

Funding

This project is funded by the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC) as part of its annual report on security. It builds on a recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the University of Florida (UF) and the OECD to reinforce existing ties and co-operation between the two institutions. It extends a previous agreement signed in 2017 to promote research and develop place-based policies in the West African Sahel. The collaboration between UF and the OECD has resulted in several pieces of work dedicated to women and trade, regional integration, and security.

Related work

– Trémolières M, Walther O, Radil S. (eds) 2022. Borders and Conflicts in North and West Africa, West African Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris.
– Trémolières M, Walther O, Radil S. (eds) 2021. Conflict Networks in North and West Africa. Paris, OECD Publishing.
– Trémolières M, Walther O, Radil S. (eds) 2020. The Geography of Conflict in North and West Africa. Paris, OECD Publishing.
-Walther O, Leuprecht C, Skillicorn D. 2020. Political fragmentation and alliances among armed non-state actors in North and Western Africa (1997-2014). Terrorism and Political Violence 32(1): 167-186.
– Walther O, Miles W. (eds) 2018. African Border Disorders. Addressing Transnational Extremist Organizations. New York, Routledge.