Modeling the Spread of Armed Conflict in North and West Africa

2025-2026

Principal Investigator at the University of Florida: Associate Professor Olivier J. Walther (lead researcher). Collaborator: Mr. David Russell. Lead at OECD: Dr. Marie Trémolières. Consultants: Assistant Professor Steven M. Radil.

Objective

This new grant will explore the diffusion of Jihadist groups from the Sahel to the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa.

Building on previous work highlighting that violence clusters near cities, borders, and roads, the project will model the spread of armed conflict to identify regions most likely to be affected by political violence in the future.

The 2-year project will leverage the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) developed by the OECD and the analysis of conflict networks to assess the vulnerability of West African regions to political violence.

Funding

This project is funded by the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC) as part of its annual report on security. It builds on a recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the University of Florida (UF) and the OECD to reinforce existing ties and co-operation between the two institutions. It extends a previous agreement signed in 2017 to promote research and develop place-based policies in the West African Sahel.